Friday, May 28, 2010

US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus - Telegraph


More deflationary news.

Larry Summers, President Obama's top economic adviser, started calling for more fiscal stimulus a couple of weeks ago. At first I found this puzzling, since much of the economic data seems to be showing improvement. However, it could very well be that Summers (who is a first-rate economist) and others in the White House are seeing signs in the data that they don't like.

Here's a key section of the article:

Mr Summers acknowledged in a speech this week that the eurozone crisis had shone a spotlight on the dangers of spiralling public debt. He said deficit spending delays the day of reckoning and leaves the US at the mercy of foreign creditors. Ultimately, "failure begets failure" in fiscal policy as the logic of compound interest does its worst.

However, Mr Summers said it would be "pennywise and pound foolish" to skimp just as the kindling wood of recovery starts to catch fire. He said fiscal policy comes into its own at at time when the economy "faces a liquidity trap" and the Fed is constrained by zero interest rates.

Mr Congdon said the Obama policy risks repeating the strategic errors of Japan, which pushed debt to dangerously high levels with one fiscal boost after another during its Lost Decade, instead of resorting to full-blown "Friedmanite" monetary stimulus.

"Fiscal policy does not work. The US has just tried the biggest fiscal experiment in history and it has failed. What matters is the quantity of money and in extremis that can be increased easily by quantititave easing. If the Fed doesn’t act, a double-dip recession is a virtual certainty," he said.




US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus - Telegraph

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