Monday, May 24, 2010

FT Alphaville » On the edge of a deflationary precipice…


Only a few months ago my thoughts that deflation, not inflation, was one of the major risks facing investors was essentially dismissed by most people.

Now it seems that it is gaining more traction. Here's a couple of posts, first from the FT which discusses the possibility of the Treasury 10 year yielding 2% (even I'm not that bearish!):

FT Alphaville » On the edge of a deflationary precipice…

And then this piece from Bloomberg, which discusses the increased demand for zero coupon long maturity Treasurys as a hedge against the possibility that rates could move significantly lower from current levels:

Strippers Declare Inflation Dead in Zero-Coupon Bonds

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awQGVKfQ5rlI&pos=5

Only problem with all of this is the investing truth that any widely held opinion is probably already reflected in market prices. Thus, in an ironic way, if we start seeing more discussion about deflation and lower interest rates, I may have to revisit my outlook.

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