Wednesday, May 23, 2012

What's Already Priced Into The Markets?


The markets are getting hit hard this morning, as talks in Europe are apparently going badly.

Normura's Michael Kurtz argues that while it is certainly possible that things could get worse before they get better, it could be that the markets have overreacted to the risks of a Greek default/euro exit.

As he writes:

 ..all this market weeping and gnashing of teeth could prove yet another significant buying opportunity: Greece may yet exit the euro after all, but with effective ECB and global policy action its impact could be limited to no more than the rounding error that the Hellenic Republic’s small size and deplorable politics render most fitting.

The chart above would seem to support Mr. Kurtz's view.