Friday, August 27, 2010

Interview with Robert Shiller

This is by way of the blog Zero Hedge.

Robert Shiller of Yale was the author of Irrational Exuberance, which correctly forecast the stock market bubble of the late 1990's. His later work on the housing market was also mostly spot-on, and the Case-Shiller index is one widely cited in the press and academia in describing the current state of housing.

So this interview is worth watching.

Fair warning: Professor Shiller speaks in a fairly monotone voice, so watching this piece for 20 minutes could be tough. The "good' parts (to me) start around 14 minutes or so into the interview, so if you want to skip ahead, by all means.

Or, if you don't want to watch at all, here's Shiller's conclusions: Shiller thinks we are very close to a "double dip" recession; bonds are not in a bubble, but reflect rational fears; and housing could be in trouble for years if we follow the Japan pattern.