Fed's volte face sends the dollar tumbling - Telegraph

OK, it's a beautiful summer day in Boston, and I snuck out of the office for today to play a little golf with my bride Christina (who, much to my dismay, is beginning to outdrive me).

Then I came in, and turned on the computer to see what some of my favorite columnists are thinking.

Yikes!

Here's the latest thinking from London, via Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph:

... a deep change is under way in investor psychology as funds and central banks respond to the blizzard of shocking US data and again focus on the fragility of an economy where public debt is surging towards 100pc of GDP, not helped by the malaise enveloping the Obama White House...

The Fed minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump.

"The Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably," it said. The economy might not regain its "longer-run path" until 2016.

"The Fed is throwing in the towel," said Gabriel Stein, of Lombard Street Research. "They are preparing to start QE again. This was predictable because the M3 broad money supply has been contracting for months."

The Fed minutes amount to a policy thunderbolt, evidence of how quickly the recovery has lost steam. Just weeks ago the Fed was mapping out withdrawal of stimulus.

Now, Mr. Evans-Pritchard has been more of the more gloomy writers in recent months, but clearly the markets are on edge. With the 2 year Treasury note now yielding 0.60%, and the 10 year Treasury below 3% again, the worries about double-dip and deflation seem very topical.

Lots to think about - even on the golf course!


Fed's volte face sends the dollar tumbling - Telegraph