This article appeared on the front page of the New York Times yesterday.
If everyone agrees that interest rates are going to more higher (which I still don't, by the way), wouldn't it seem logical that prices in today's bond market already reflect the "sure thing"?
It is rare, in my opinion, that you can actually make money by being on the side of the overwhelming consensus. I will be blogging more about this soon, but I wanted to post this article.
It was only a year ago that everyone "knew" that the stock market was going to move lower (the S&P 500 is up over +50%), for example.
Interest Rates Have Nowhere to Go but Up - NYTimes.com
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